Autor: Paulo Arvate

WP 102 The Fire-Armed Police Effect: Evidences from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Brazil

Abstract -We estimate the impact of fire-armed police on violent crimes (homicides and acts of aggression) in a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil. In 2003, Brazilian legislators approved a law that regulates the use of firearms by the municipal police. It establishes that municipalities with 50 thousand or more inhabitants are allowed to have local police with firearms. We explore this population eligibility criterion as an instrumental variable of firearm possession in a linear regression discontinuity design. Using different data sources at the municipality level for selected years from 2002 to 2012, we find robust results that a municipal police force with firearms significantly reduces crime compared with a municipal police force without firearms. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that the effect is partly due to greater police efforts such as more arrests and the incapacitation of criminals. Finally, we demonstrate that one of possible effect (spillover) of deterrence (i.e., migration of potential criminals from one municipality to its neighbor) is not detected. Download do Paper Ano: 2016 Working-paper: 102 Paulo Arvate Ler todos os Posts de Paulo Arvate’s Share...

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WP077 – Intergovernmental transfers and public spending in Brazilian municipalities

ABSTRACT – We estimate the effects of unconditional (full fiscal decentralization) versus conditional (partial fiscal decentralization) block grants on local public spending in Brazilian municipalities. Our results suggest that the effect of unconditional and conditional transfers do not differ tatistically. Their combination promotes a full crowding-in effect on aggregate public spending — i.e., for $1 of unconditional and conditional grant receipts; we find $1 of additional local public expenditures, greater than the corresponding effect of local income, providing further evidence for the flypaper effect. Moreover, the effect of unconditional transfers on education (health) spending is smaller than the effect of conditional education (health) transfers but greater than the corresponding effect of local income. We consider four strategies to identify causal effects of federal grants and the local income on fiscal responses regarding Brazilian local governments: (i) a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, (ii) Redistributive rules of education funds, (iii) Oil and Gas production, and (iv) Rainfall deviations from the historical mean. Download do Paper Ano: 2015 Working-paper: 077 Paulo Arvate Ler todos os Posts de Paulo Arvate’s Share...

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