Autor: Gabriel Ulyssea

WP 090 Local Labor Market Conditions and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

Abstract – This paper estimates the effect of local labor market conditions on crime in adeveloping country with high crime rates. Contrary to the previous literature, which has focused exclusively on developed countries with relatively low crime rates, we find that labor market conditions have a strong effect on homicides. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local labor demand. Regions facing more negative shocks experience large relative increases in crime rates in the medium term, but these effects virtually disappear in the long term. This pattern mirrors the labor market responses to the trade shocks. Using the trade liberalization episode to design an instrumental variables strategy, we find that a 10% reduction in expected labor market earnings (employment rate earnings) leads to a 39% increase in homicide rates. Our results highlight an additional dimension of adjustment costs following trade shocks that has so far been overlooked in the literature. Download do Paper Ano: 2016 Working-paper: 2016 Gabriel Ulyssea Ler todos os Posts de Gabriel Ulyssea’s Share...

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WP 076 – Firms, Informality and Development: Theory and evidence from Brazil

This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model where heterogeneous firms can exploit two margins of informality: (i) not register their business, the extensive margin; and (ii) hire workers “off the books”, the intensive margin. The model encompasses the main competing frameworks for understanding informality and provides a natural setting to infer their empirical relevance. The counterfactual analysis shows that once the intensive margin is accounted for, aggregate firm and labor informality need not move in the same direction as a result of policy changes. Lower informality can be, but is not necessarily associated to higher GDP, TFP or welfare. Download do Paper Ano: 2015 Working-paper: 076 Gabriel Ulyssea Ler todos os Posts de Gabriel Ulyssea’s Share...

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