Autor: Fernanda Nechio

WP 092 Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism

Abstract – The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity—or expectations thereof—puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of capital. On the other hand, the decline in population growth eventually leads to a higher dependency ratio (the fraction of retirees to workers). Because retirees save less than workers, this compositional effect lowers the aggregate savings rate and pushes real rates up. We calibrate a tractable life-cycle model to capture salient features of the demographic transition in developed economies, and find that its overall effect is a reduction of the equilibrium interest rate by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014. Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Other policies can offset the negative effects of the demographic transition on real rates with different degrees of success. Download do Paper Ano: 2016 Working-paper: 092 Fernanda Nechio Ler todos os Posts de Fernanda Nechio’s Share...

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WP 078 – Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities

Abstract – We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across …firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral speci…city, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide or …rm-speci…c factor markets. Sectoral factor speci…city generates within-sector strategic substitutability and tends to induce across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two models, depending on parameterization and the distribution of price rigidity across sectors. Under the empirical distribution for the U.S., our model behaves similarly to an economy with …rm-speci…c factors in the short-run, and later on approaches the dynamics of the model with economy-wide factor markets. This is consistent with the idea that factor price equalization might take place gradually over time, so that …rm-speci…city may serve as a reasonable short-run approximation, whereas economy-wide markets are likely a better description of how factors of production are allocated in the longer run. Download do Paper Ano: 2015 Working-paper: 079 Fernanda Nechio Ler todos os Posts de Fernanda Nechio’s Share...

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WP041 – Do People Understand Monetary Policy?

Este trabalho de Carlos Carvalho  (PUC-Rio) e Fernanda Nechio (Fed-  San Francisco) investiga se famílias  e indivíduos estão  entendendo  como a politica monetária é  conduzida nos Estados Unidos. Seu  objetivo central foi verificar se as  famílias estão cientes do que  economistas estabelecem como  ‘princípios de estabilidade’  subjacentes à regra de Taylor – isto é, o governo tenderia a elevar a taxa de juros em situação de inflação e a diminuí-la em caso de desaquecimento da atividade econômica. A partir de uma associação entre a Pesquisa Michigan, realizada pela Universidade de Michigan, e a Pesquisa Profissional de Prognosticadores, conduzida pelo Fed (Federal Reserve Bank) de Filadélfia, o artigo verifica que o grau de ciência sobre a questão varia conforme a faixa de renda, faixa etária e nível educacional – algo que também não é simétrico a respeito da percepção sobre oscilações previstas para a taxa de juros.  Famílias no quartil superior da renda ou com nível superior de ensino, por exemplo, entendem que há relação entre aumentos no desemprego e reduções na taxa de juros. Em geral, indivíduos com rendas maiores, altos graus de escolaridade e mais velhos demonstram maior ciência da regra de Taylor do que os mais jovens, menos escolarizados e mais pobres. Dado a importância que governantes creditam a boa comunicação com público como forma de garantir a efetividade das suas políticas, o engendramento de esforços para...

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WP074 – Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models

Abstract – We study how real exchange rate dynamics are affected by monetary policy in dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium, sticky-price models. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence policy inertia or persistent policy shocks is key. When the monetary policy rule has a strong interest rate smoothing component, these models fail to generate high real exchange rate persistence in response to monetary shocks, as policy inertia hampers their ability to generate a hump-shaped response to such shocks. Moreover, in the presence of persistent monetary shocks, increasing policy inertia may decrease real exchange rate persistence. Download do Paper Ano: 2014 Working-paper: 074 Fernanda Nechio Ler todos os Posts de Fernanda Nechio’s Share...

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