Autor: Claudio Ribeiro de Lucinda

WP 083 The Economics of Sub-optimal Policies for Traffic Congestion

Abstract – Economic theory prescribes a (pigouvian) congestion tax in order to alleviate the negative effects of traffic congestion. It is simply a matter of internalizing a negative externality. However, traffic congestion is a pervasive problem in cities across the world, and a congestion tax is seldom applied. This paper tries to understand why this is the case. In order to do so, we estimate the welfare and traffic effects of alternative policies to be applied to the city of Sao Paulo; a congestion charge and a rotation system (or license plate restriction). With a dataset containing information on origin, destination and mode choice, we estimate a individual demand model for transportation mode. These demands are in turn used to run counter-factuals to evaluate the welfare costs of both policies. The results show that the congestion tax performs better than the rotation system in terms of aggregate welfare, but the distribution of these losses are very distinct. The congestion tax negatively affects a larger number of people with lower intensity than the rotation. Plus, the rotation system concentrates the heavier losses in an even smaller group, and thas little or no effect on driving decisions of those who owns more than one car. These results support the argument that the rotation system is chosen since it affects less people and causes little or no welfare loss on the richer...

Leia mais

WP022 – An Experimental Analysis of the Brazilian Personal Credit Market

ABSTRACT – This paper aims to investigate some important questions of the personal credit demand of a group that is not that much studied in the academic literature: the middle income class in a large emerging market, Brazil. In order to do so, a database was used from an experiment carried out by a large credit card Brazilian issuer, in which offers of different interest rates were randomly sent to clients of two different groups. One of them comprises clients with median income of USD 20.000, and the other of USD 8.000. The first hypothesis to be investigated is on the interest sensitivity of personal credit demand, both on the extensive margin and on the intensive margin. The second group of hypotheses concerns the existence or not of problems of adverse selection in this sample and the third group of questions deals with moral hazard on whether the customer will decide to repay the loan. Results indicate that for the higher income group the demand is sensitive to the interest rates – both on the extensive margin (elastic demand) – and on the intensive margin (inelastic demand). As for the Information Asymmetries, for both groups of consumers, the pool of customers who accepted the offer are worse credit risks than those who did not accept, although there was no evidence of different credit risks among those who accepted worse...

Leia mais