Autor: Bernardo Guimaraes

WP058 – Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

Ao planejar políticas de estímulo, será que o governo deveria focar mais em ações que evitem que a economia caia em uma recessão ou resgatar a economia quando a produtividade declina? Pelos resultados do estudo desenvolvido por Bernardo Guimarães (EESP/FGV) e por Caio Machado (EESP/FGV), novas propostas não deveriam excluir nenhuma das duas opções.  Seguindo um modelo macroeconômico simples, que analisa diferentes iniciativas,  o paper mostra que o retorno esperado dos investimentos depende diretamente das expectativas de demanda. O modelo é compatível com políticas que tentam restaurar a confiança do mercado quando o economia está em recessão e foi usado para verificar o impacto de diferentes estratégias adotadas com o objetivo de suavizar falhas de condução. Os investimentos que serão feitos e as políticas de estímulo devem preservar o equilíbrio entre atividade econômica e produtividade, o que significa estabelecer um nível  máximo para os subsídios ou para a redução de impostos. Download do Paper Ano: 2013 Working-paper: 058 Bernardo Guimaraes Ler todos os Posts de Bernardo Guimaraes Share...

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WP069 – Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms’ response to inflation shocks

ABSTRACT – This paper proposes a test for distinguishing between time-dependent and state-dependent pricing based on whether the timing of pricing changes is affected by realized or expeted inflation. Using Brazilian data and exploring a large discrepancy between realized and expected inflation surrounding the election of President Lula in 2002-3, we obtain a strong relation between expected inflation and duration of price spells, but little effect of inflation shocks on the frequency of price adjustment. The results thus support models with time-dependent pricing, where the timing for following changes is optimally chosen whenever firms adjust prices. Download do Paper Ano: 2014 Working-paper: 069 Bernardo Guimaraes Ler todos os Posts de Bernardo Guimaraes Share...

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WP068 – Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation episode

ABSTRACT – State-dependent and time-dependent price setting models yield distinct implications for how frequency and magnitude of price changes react to shocks. This note studies pricing behavior in Brazil following the large devaluation of the Brazilian Real in 1999 to distinguish between models. The results are consistent with state-dependent pricing Download do Paper Ano: 2014 Working-paper: 068 Bernardo Guimaraes Ler todos os Posts de Bernardo Guimaraes Share...

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WP060 – IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for fiscal adjustment

ABSTRACT – This paper proposes a model to study how conditional lending and immediate liquidity provision affect incentives for fiscal adjustment in a country facing the risk of sovereign default. Conditional lending provides explicit incentives for fiscal adjustment but immediate liquidity provision is more effective in reducing liquidation costs. For some parameters, immediate liquidity provision induces fiscal adjustment and debt repayment, while conditional lending does not (and vice-versa). Incentives for fiscal adjustment are concave in the fraction of lending provided under conditionalities. A large cost of tight fiscal policy shifts the balance towards immediate liquidity provision. Download do Paper Ano: 2013 Working-paper: 060 Bernardo Guimaraes Ler todos os Posts de Bernardo Guimaraes Share...

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WP059 – Power Sharing, Rents, and Commitment

Abstract – Good government requires some commitment to rules. This paper proposes a model of the equilibrium rules allocating power and resources that emerge under the threat of rebellions. Commitment to protect property rights can only be achieved if power is not as concentrated as incumbents would like it to be, ex post. Power sharing endogenously enables incumbents to commit to otherwise time-inconsistent policies by ensuring more people receive rents under the status quo, and thus want to defend it. But it is precisely because sharing power entails sharing Download do Paper Ano: 2013 Working-paper: 059 Bernardo Guimaraes Ler todos os Posts de Bernardo Guimaraes Share...

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