Autor: André Portela de Souza

WP114 No Impact of Rural Development Policies? No Synergies with Conditional Cash Transfers? An Investigation of the IFAD-Supported Gavião Project in Brazil

Abstract: Public policies frequently are implemented simultaneously rather than in isolation. We estimate the impacts—and possible synergies—of a rural development project (Pro-Gavião) and the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program (Bolsa Família). In partnership with the State Government of Bahia, Pro-Gavião was an IFAD-supported rural development project in 13 contiguous municipalities between 1997 and 2005. Census tract level data were extracted for the analysis from the 1995-96 and 2006 Agricultural Censuses. The evaluation uses propensity score matching to construct a control group of untreated census tracts, and a difference-in-differences estimation to identify impacts. The outcomes analyzed include land productivity, agricultural income and child labor. Although Pro-Gavião involved significant investments in the region, the results suggest little if any program impact, or synergies between the two programs. The unexpected null findings are robust to alternative approaches to identifying the treated census tracts, matching techniques, and heterogeneity of impacts by initial level of poverty. We show that the lack of impacts is not driven by adverse rainfall in the treated communities, or the influence of other programs in the control communities. Alternative explanations for the null results are explored. Download do Paper Ano: 2018 Working-paper: 114 André Portela de Souza Ler todos os Posts de André Portela de Souza’s Share...

Leia mais

WP 113 Technical Education, Noncognitive Skills and Labor Market Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from Brazil∗

This paper describes the results from the evaluation of the Student Training Scholarship (“Bolsa Forma¸c˜ao Estudante”), a public policy that offers scholarships to current and for- mer high school students of the public educational system in Brazil so that they can attend technical and vocational education courses free of charge. We base our analysis on a waiting list randomized controlled trial in four municipalities and use survey and administrative data to quantify the effects of the program on educational investments, labor market out- comes, noncognitive skills and self-reported risky behaviors. Our intention-to-treat estimates suggest substantial gender heterogeneity two years after program completion. Women ex- perienced large gains in labor market outcomes and noncognitive skills. In particular, those who received the offer scored 0.63σ higher on an extraversion indicator, but, surprisingly, reported more frequently that they were involved in argument or fights and binge drinking. We find no effects of the program on the male sub-sample. The findings corroborate the evidence on gender heterogeneity in the literature on technical and vocational education programs, and also extend it to additional dimensions. Download do Paper Ano: 2018 Working-paper: 113 André Portela de Souza Ler todos os Posts de André Portela de Souza’s Share...

Leia mais

WP 104 – Short Long-Term Effects Of a Child-Labor Ban

Abstract – This is the first study that investigates the short and long-term causal effects of a child-labor ban. We explore the law that increased minimum employment age from 14 to 16 in Brazil in 1998 and uncover its impact on time allocated to schooling and work in the short term and on school attainment and labor-market outcomes in the long term. We use cross-sectional data from 1998 to 2014 and apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the ban at different points of individuals’ life-cycles. Our estimates show that the ban reduced incidence of boys in paid work activities by 4 percentage points or 46 percent. We find that the fall in child labor is mostly explained by the change in the proportions of boys working for pay and studying and observe an increase in the proportion of boys only studying as a consequence. The results suggest that the ban reduced boys’ participation in the labor force. We follow the same cohort affected by the ban over the years and find that these short-term effects persisted until 2003 when they turned 18. We pooled data from 2007 to 2014 to check whether the ban affected individuals’ stock of human capital and labor-market outcomes. Our estimates suggest that the ban did not have long-term effects for the whole cohort, but found some indication that it...

Leia mais

WP 102 The Fire-Armed Police Effect: Evidences from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Brazil

Abstract -We estimate the impact of fire-armed police on violent crimes (homicides and acts of aggression) in a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil. In 2003, Brazilian legislators approved a law that regulates the use of firearms by the municipal police. It establishes that municipalities with 50 thousand or more inhabitants are allowed to have local police with firearms. We explore this population eligibility criterion as an instrumental variable of firearm possession in a linear regression discontinuity design. Using different data sources at the municipality level for selected years from 2002 to 2012, we find robust results that a municipal police force with firearms significantly reduces crime compared with a municipal police force without firearms. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that the effect is partly due to greater police efforts such as more arrests and the incapacitation of criminals. Finally, we demonstrate that one of possible effect (spillover) of deterrence (i.e., migration of potential criminals from one municipality to its neighbor) is not detected. Download do Paper Ano: 2016 Working-paper: 102 André Portela de Souza Ler todos os Posts de André Portela de Souza’s Share...

Leia mais

WP 080 – Labor Earnings Dynamics in Post-Stabilization Brazil

Abstract – This paper analyzes both the levels and evolution of wage inequality in the Brazilian formal labor market using administrative data from the Brazilian Ministry of Labor (RAIS) from 1994 to 2009. After the covariance structure of the log of real weekly wages is estimated and the variance of the log of real weekly wages is decomposed into its permanent and transitory components, we verify that nearly 60% of the inequality within age and education groups is explained by the permanent component, i.e., by time-invariant individual productive characteristics. During this period, wage inequality decreased by 29%. In the first years immediately after the macroeconomic stabilization (1994-1997), this decrease is explained entirely by reductions in the transitory component, suggesting that the end of the macroeconomic instability was a relevant factor in reducing inequality. In the second sub-period (1998-2009), the decrease is mostly explained by reductions in the permanent component. Finally, we show that education and age account for a sizable share of the permanent component (54% on average). Download do Paper Ano: 2015 Working-paper: 080 André Portela de Souza Ler todos os Posts de André Portela de Souza’s Share...

Leia mais
  • 1
  • 2